Serie B (Brazil) · Sat, Oct 24 · 19:30 · Atlético Goianiense vs Novorizontino
Likeliest: Atlético Goianiense win · 42%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético Goianiense42%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Novorizontino28%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 56% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Goianiense
WinWinLossDrawDraw
- Oct 16 · at Ponte Preta (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · v Sport Recife (H)1-1
- Oct 7 · at CRB (A)1-3
- Oct 3 · v América Mineiro (H)2-0
- Sep 26 · at Goiás (A)1-0
Novorizontino
DrawWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 18 · at Vila Nova FC (A)2-2
- Oct 12 · v Ponte Preta (H)5-1
- Oct 8 · at Náutico (A)2-0
- Oct 2 · v Goiás (H)3-0
- Sep 25 · v São Bernardo (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Atlético Goianiense | Novorizontino |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.