Serie B (Brazil) · Sun, Oct 11 · 19:10 · Atlético Goianiense vs Sport Recife
Likeliest: Atlético Goianiense win · 51%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético Goianiense51%51%0
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Sport Recife22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 48% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 51% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 69% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Goianiense
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 7 · at CRB (A)1-3
- Oct 3 · v América Mineiro (H)2-0
- Sep 26 · at Goiás (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · at São Bernardo (A)0-1
- Sep 13 · v Criciúma (H)4-0
Sport Recife
LossWinLossWinWin
- Oct 6 · v São Bernardo (H)2-1
- Oct 1 · at Athletic Club (A)2-1
- Sep 26 · at Náutico (A)1-3
- Sep 19 · v Juventude (H)2-1
- Sep 16 · at CRB (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Atlético Goianiense | Sport Recife |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.