La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Mar 1 · 20:00 · Atlético Madrid vs Athletic Club
Likeliest: Atlético Madrid win · 61%
A tight one: we make it 61% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Atlético Madrid61%——
OursMarket
Draw23%——
OursMarket
Athletic Club16%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Madrid
WinDrawDrawWinDraw
- Feb 25 · at FC Barcelona (A)4-4
- Feb 22 · at Valencia (A)3-0
- Feb 15 · v Celta de Vigo (H)1-1
- Feb 8 · at Real Madrid (A)1-1
- Feb 4 · v Getafe (H)5-0
Athletic Club
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Feb 25 · at Barcelona BA (A)2-1
- Feb 23 · v Real Valladolid (H)7-1
- Feb 16 · at Espanyol (A)1-1
- Feb 8 · v Girona (H)3-0
- Feb 2 · at Real Betis (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Atlético Madrid | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-0 | 2-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.