La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Apr 25 · 19:00 · Atlético Madrid vs Athletic Club
Likeliest: Atlético Madrid win · 61%
A 61% home win. The market says 47%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético Madrid61%47%+15
OursMarket
Draw21%26%−5
OursMarket
Athletic Club18%27%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 51% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 73% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 53% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 74% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 63% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Madrid
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Apr 22 · at Elche (A)2-3
- Apr 18 · v Real Sociedad (H)2-2
- Apr 14 · v FC Barcelona (H)1-2
- Apr 11 · at Sevilla (A)1-2
- Apr 8 · at FC Barcelona (A)2-0
Athletic Club
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Apr 22 · v Internacional (H)1-2
- Apr 21 · v Osasuna (H)1-0
- Apr 19 · at Novorizontino (A)1-2
- Apr 12 · at CRB (A)3-2
- Apr 12 · v Villarreal (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Atlético Madrid | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.