La Liga (Spain) · Sat, May 9 · 16:30 · Atlético Madrid vs Celta de Vigo
Likeliest: Atlético Madrid win · 65%
We make it 64% for both teams to score. The market says 59%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético Madrid65%44%+21
OursMarket
Draw18%27%−9
OursMarket
Celta de Vigo17%28%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 59% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 72% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 56% | −21 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 73% | +9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 61% | +19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Madrid
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- May 5 · at Arsenal (A)0-1
- May 2 · at Valencia (A)2-0
- Apr 29 · v Arsenal (H)1-1
- Apr 25 · v Athletic Club (H)3-2
- Apr 22 · at Elche (A)2-3
Celta de Vigo
LossLossLossLossWin
- May 3 · v Elche (H)3-1
- Apr 26 · at Villarreal (A)1-2
- Apr 22 · at FC Barcelona (A)0-1
- Apr 16 · v SC Freiburg (H)1-3
- Apr 12 · v Real Oviedo (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Atlético Madrid | Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.