La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Oct 24 · 19:00 · Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruña
Likeliest: Atletico Madrid win · 79%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 79% for the home win. The market says 75%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atletico Madrid79%75%+4
OursMarket
Draw15%16%−2
OursMarket
Deportivo La Coruña7%9%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 46% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 93% | 91% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 21% | 25% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 92% | 89% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atletico Madrid
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Espanyol (A)1-0
- Oct 13 · v Manchester United (H)2-0
- Oct 10 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)2-1
- Sep 20 · v Real Madrid (H)2-1
- Sep 16 · v Osasuna (H)4-0
Deportivo La Coruña
DrawLossDrawLossDraw
- Oct 16 · v Levante UD (H)1-1
- Oct 11 · at Real Sociedad (A)2-3
- Sep 20 · v Real Betis (H)1-1
- Sep 16 · v Sevilla (H)0-1
- Sep 13 · at Getafe (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Atletico Madrid | Deportivo La Coruña |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 4-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.