Copa Del Rey (Spain) · Thu, Feb 12 · 20:00 · Atlético Madrid vs FC Barcelona
Likeliest: FC Barcelona win · 45%
A tight one: we make it 45% for the away win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético Madrid34%33%+1
OursMarket
Draw22%25%−3
OursMarket
FC Barcelona45%42%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 65% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 68% | 67% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 67% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 44% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Madrid
WinLossDrawWinLoss
- Feb 8 · v Real Betis (H)0-1
- Feb 5 · at Real Betis (A)5-0
- Jan 31 · at Levante (A)0-0
- Jan 28 · v Bodø / Glimt (H)1-2
- Jan 25 · v Mallorca (H)3-0
FC Barcelona
WinWinWinWinWin
- Feb 7 · v Mallorca (H)3-0
- Feb 3 · at Albacete (A)2-1
- Jan 31 · at Elche (A)3-1
- Jan 28 · v FC København (H)4-1
- Jan 25 · v Real Oviedo (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Atlético Madrid | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 9-0-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 8-0-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.