La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Apr 4 · 19:00 · Atlético Madrid vs FC Barcelona
Likeliest: FC Barcelona win · 43%
A tight one: we make it 43% for the away win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético Madrid35%31%+3
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
FC Barcelona43%44%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 70% | 68% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 69% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 41% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Madrid
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Mar 22 · at Real Madrid (A)2-3
- Mar 18 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-3
- Mar 14 · v Getafe (H)1-0
- Mar 10 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)5-2
- Mar 7 · v Real Sociedad (H)3-2
FC Barcelona
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Mar 22 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-0
- Mar 18 · v Newcastle United (H)7-2
- Mar 15 · v Sevilla (H)5-2
- Mar 10 · at Newcastle United (A)1-1
- Mar 7 · at Athletic Club (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Atlético Madrid | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.