Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Apr 14 · 19:00 · Atlético Madrid vs FC Barcelona
Likeliest: FC Barcelona win · 40%
A 37% home win. The market says 25%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético Madrid37%25%+12
OursMarket
Draw23%22%0
OursMarket
FC Barcelona40%52%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 48% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 75% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 33% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Madrid
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Apr 11 · at Sevilla (A)1-2
- Apr 8 · at FC Barcelona (A)2-0
- Apr 4 · v FC Barcelona (H)1-2
- Mar 22 · at Real Madrid (A)2-3
- Mar 18 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-3
FC Barcelona
WinWinWinLossWin
- Apr 11 · v Espanyol (H)4-1
- Apr 8 · v Atlético Madrid (H)0-2
- Apr 4 · at Atlético Madrid (A)2-1
- Mar 22 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-0
- Mar 18 · v Newcastle United (H)7-2
| Last 10 games | Atlético Madrid | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.