Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Nov 3 · 20:00 · Atletico Madrid vs FC Bayern München
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 50%
Likely scores: 1–1 10% · 1–2 8% · 2–2 7%
A tight one: we make it 50% for the away win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atletico Madrid26%29%−3
OursMarket
Draw24%23%0
OursMarket
FC Bayern München50%48%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 68% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | 68% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 35% | 38% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 2.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atletico Madrid
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 31 · at Levante UD (A)2-0
- Oct 24 · v Deportivo La Coruña (H)1-0
- Oct 20 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)1-1
- Oct 17 · at Espanyol (A)1-0
- Oct 13 · v Manchester United (H)2-0
FC Bayern München
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- Oct 31 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)2-2
- Oct 28 · v 1. FC Magdeburg (H)6-1
- Oct 25 · at SC Freiburg (A)3-1
- Oct 21 · v Arsenal (H)2-2
- Oct 17 · v RB Leipzig (H)6-1
| Last 10 games | Atletico Madrid | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 6-4-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 3.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.