La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Mar 14 · 15:15 · Atlético Madrid vs Getafe
Likeliest: Atlético Madrid win · 55%
We make it 55% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 39%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético Madrid55%60%−5
OursMarket
Draw23%26%−3
OursMarket
Getafe21%14%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 39% | +16 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 39% | +21 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 86% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 40% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 81% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Madrid
WinWinLossWinWin
- Mar 10 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)5-2
- Mar 7 · v Real Sociedad (H)3-2
- Mar 3 · at FC Barcelona (A)0-3
- Feb 28 · at Real Oviedo (A)1-0
- Feb 24 · v Club Brugge (H)4-1
Getafe
WinWinLossWinWin
- Mar 8 · v Real Betis (H)2-0
- Mar 2 · at Real Madrid (A)1-0
- Feb 22 · v Sevilla (H)0-1
- Feb 14 · v Villarreal (H)2-1
- Feb 8 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Atlético Madrid | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.