La Liga (Spain) · Sun, May 17 · 17:00 · Atlético Madrid vs Girona
Likeliest: Atlético Madrid win · 62%
A 62% home win. The market says 53%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético Madrid62%53%+8
OursMarket
Draw22%25%−3
OursMarket
Girona16%22%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 57% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 78% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 47% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 71% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Madrid
DrawWinLossLossWin
- May 12 · at Osasuna (A)2-1
- May 9 · v Celta de Vigo (H)0-1
- May 5 · at Arsenal (A)0-1
- May 2 · at Valencia (A)2-0
- Apr 29 · v Arsenal (H)1-1
Girona
LossLossLossDrawDraw
- May 14 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-1
- May 11 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)1-1
- May 1 · v Mallorca (H)0-1
- Apr 25 · at Valencia (A)1-2
- Apr 21 · v Real Betis (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Atlético Madrid | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.