La Liga (Spain) · Wed, Aug 19 · 19:00 · Atletico Madrid vs Málaga
Likeliest: Atletico Madrid win · 50%
A 26% away win. The market says 9%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atletico Madrid50%74%−24
OursMarket
Draw24%17%+7
OursMarket
Málaga26%9%+17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 55% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 42% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 91% | −17 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 26% | +24 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 83% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 89% | −23 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atletico Madrid
LossWinWinLossLoss
- May 24 · at Villarreal (A)1-5
- May 24 · at Villarreal (A)1-5
- May 17 · v Girona (H)1-0
- May 12 · at Osasuna (A)2-1
- May 9 · v Celta de Vigo (H)0-1
Málaga
WinWinDrawDrawWin
- Jun 20 · at Almería (A)2-1
- Jun 14 · v Almería (H)0-0
- Jun 10 · v Las Palmas (H)1-1
- Jun 7 · at Las Palmas (A)1-0
- May 31 · at Real Zaragoza (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Atletico Madrid | Málaga |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 6-4-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.