La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Jan 25 · 13:00 · Atlético Madrid vs Mallorca
Likeliest: Atlético Madrid win · 57%
We make it 59% for both teams to score. The market says 45%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético Madrid57%72%−15
OursMarket
Draw23%18%+5
OursMarket
Mallorca20%10%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 45% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 90% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 28% | +15 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 82% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 88% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Madrid
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- Jan 21 · at Galatasaray (A)1-1
- Jan 18 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)1-0
- Jan 13 · at Deportivo La Coruña (A)1-0
- Jan 4 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-1
- Dec 21 · at Girona (A)3-0
Mallorca
LossDrawLossLossWin
- Jan 17 · v Athletic Club (H)3-2
- Jan 11 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)1-2
- Jan 4 · v Girona (H)1-2
- Dec 19 · at Valencia (A)1-1
- Dec 16 · at Deportivo La Coruña (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Atlético Madrid | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 10-0-0 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.