Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Oct 13 · 19:00 · Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United
Likeliest: Atletico Madrid win · 43%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atletico Madrid43%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%+1
OursMarket
Manchester United32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atletico Madrid
LossWinWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)2-1
- Sep 20 · v Real Madrid (H)2-1
- Sep 16 · v Osasuna (H)4-0
- Sep 13 · at Real Sociedad (A)3-0
- Sep 9 · at Liverpool (A)1-2
Manchester United
WinLossLossDrawDraw
- Oct 10 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)1-1
- Sep 20 · at Fulham (A)1-1
- Sep 16 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)2-3
- Sep 13 · v Manchester City (H)0-1
- Sep 10 · v Sabah FK (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Atletico Madrid | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.