La Liga (Spain) · Wed, Sep 16 · 17:00 · Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna
Likeliest: Atletico Madrid win · 68%
A tight one: we make it 68% for the home win. The market says 66%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atletico Madrid68%66%+2
OursMarket
Draw20%21%−1
OursMarket
Osasuna12%13%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 87% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | 34% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 83% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atletico Madrid
DrawWinLossLossWin
- Sep 13 · at Real Sociedad (A)3-0
- Sep 9 · at Liverpool (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · at Athletic Club (A)0-3
- Aug 29 · at Sevilla (A)3-1
- Aug 23 · v Villarreal (H)2-2
Osasuna
DrawWinWinLossLoss
- Sep 12 · v Espanyol (H)0-2
- Sep 6 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)2-5
- Aug 31 · v Getafe (H)1-0
- Aug 27 · at Celta Vigo (A)2-1
- Aug 24 · v Levante UD (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Atletico Madrid | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.