La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Feb 8 · 17:30 · Atlético Madrid vs Real Betis
Likeliest: Atlético Madrid win · 56%
We make it 60% for both teams to score. The market says 52%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético Madrid56%65%−9
OursMarket
Draw23%20%+3
OursMarket
Real Betis21%15%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 57% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 52% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 85% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 35% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 80% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 82% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Madrid
DrawWinLossDrawWin
- Feb 5 · at Real Betis (A)5-0
- Jan 31 · at Levante (A)0-0
- Jan 28 · v Bodø / Glimt (H)1-2
- Jan 25 · v Mallorca (H)3-0
- Jan 21 · at Galatasaray (A)1-1
Real Betis
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Feb 5 · v Atlético Madrid (H)0-5
- Feb 1 · v Valencia (H)2-1
- Jan 29 · v Feyenoord (H)2-1
- Jan 25 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)1-2
- Jan 22 · at PAOK (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Atlético Madrid | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.