La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Sep 20 · 14:15 · Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 50%
A tight one: we make it 50% for the away win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atletico Madrid24%27%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Real Madrid50%49%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 66% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 69% | 66% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 32% | 35% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atletico Madrid
WinLossLossWinWin
- Sep 16 · v Osasuna (H)4-0
- Sep 13 · at Real Sociedad (A)3-0
- Sep 9 · at Liverpool (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · at Athletic Club (A)0-3
- Aug 29 · at Sevilla (A)3-1
Real Madrid
WinLossWinWinWin
- Sep 15 · at Elche (A)3-2
- Sep 12 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)4-1
- Sep 8 · v Inter Milan (H)2-1
- Sep 4 · at Real Betis (A)0-1
- Aug 30 · v Málaga (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Atletico Madrid | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 9-0-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.