La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Mar 7 · 17:30 · Atlético Madrid vs Real Sociedad
Likeliest: Atlético Madrid win · 50%
We make it 66% for both teams to score. The market says 52%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético Madrid50%59%−9
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Real Sociedad28%18%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 53% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 52% | +14 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 82% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 41% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 77% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Madrid
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Mar 3 · at FC Barcelona (A)0-3
- Feb 28 · at Real Oviedo (A)1-0
- Feb 24 · v Club Brugge (H)4-1
- Feb 21 · v Espanyol (H)4-2
- Feb 18 · at Club Brugge (A)3-3
Real Sociedad
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Mar 4 · v Athletic Club (H)1-0
- Feb 28 · at Mallorca (A)1-0
- Feb 21 · v Real Oviedo (H)3-3
- Feb 14 · at Real Madrid (A)1-4
- Feb 11 · at Athletic Club (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Atlético Madrid | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.