Copa Del Rey (Spain) · Sat, Apr 18 · 19:00 · Atlético Madrid vs Real Sociedad
Likeliest: Atlético Madrid win · 60%
We make it 65% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético Madrid60%52%+8
OursMarket
Draw20%26%−6
OursMarket
Real Sociedad21%22%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 53% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 55% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 48% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 74% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 70% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Madrid
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Apr 14 · v FC Barcelona (H)1-2
- Apr 11 · at Sevilla (A)1-2
- Apr 8 · at FC Barcelona (A)2-0
- Apr 4 · v FC Barcelona (H)1-2
- Mar 22 · at Real Madrid (A)2-3
Real Sociedad
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Apr 11 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)3-3
- Apr 4 · v Levante (H)2-0
- Mar 20 · at Villarreal (A)1-3
- Mar 15 · v Osasuna (H)3-1
- Mar 7 · at Atlético Madrid (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Atlético Madrid | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.