La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Nov 1 · 15:15 · Atlético Madrid vs Sevilla
Likeliest: Atlético Madrid win · 57%
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Atlético Madrid57%——
OursMarket
Draw22%——
OursMarket
Sevilla21%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Madrid
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Oct 27 · at Real Betis (A)2-0
- Oct 21 · at Arsenal (A)0-4
- Oct 18 · v Osasuna (H)1-0
- Oct 5 · at Celta de Vigo (A)1-1
- Sep 30 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)5-1
Sevilla
WinWinLossLossWin
- Oct 28 · at Toledo (A)4-1
- Oct 24 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-2
- Oct 18 · v Mallorca (H)1-3
- Oct 5 · v FC Barcelona (H)4-1
- Sep 28 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Atlético Madrid | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-1-0 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.