La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Dec 13 · 13:00 · Atlético Madrid vs Valencia
Likeliest: Atlético Madrid win · 71%
We make it 66% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 56%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético Madrid71%73%−2
OursMarket
Draw18%18%0
OursMarket
Valencia11%9%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 56% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 91% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 29% | 27% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 82% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 86% | 89% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Madrid
WinWinLossLossWin
- Dec 9 · at PSV (A)3-2
- Dec 6 · at Athletic Club (A)0-1
- Dec 2 · at FC Barcelona (A)1-3
- Nov 29 · v Real Oviedo (H)2-0
- Nov 26 · v Inter (H)2-1
Valencia
DrawWinDrawWinDraw
- Dec 7 · v Sevilla (H)1-1
- Dec 4 · at FC Cartagena (A)2-1
- Dec 1 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)1-1
- Nov 21 · v Levante (H)1-0
- Nov 9 · v Real Betis (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Atlético Madrid | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 10-0-0 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.