La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Jan 25 · 15:15 · Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal
Likeliest: Atlético Madrid win · 49%
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Atlético Madrid49%——
OursMarket
Draw26%——
OursMarket
Villarreal25%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Madrid
WinWinWinLossWin
- Jan 21 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)2-1
- Jan 18 · at Leganés (A)0-1
- Jan 15 · at Elche (A)4-0
- Jan 12 · v Osasuna (H)1-0
- Jan 4 · at Marbella (A)1-0
Villarreal
LossWin
- Jan 20 · v Mallorca (H)4-0
- Jan 13 · at Real Sociedad (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Atlético Madrid | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-1 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.4 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | — |
| Both teams scored | 20% | — |
| Clean sheets | 60% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.