La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Aug 23 · 15:00 · Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal
Likeliest: Atletico Madrid win · 55%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atletico Madrid55%51%+4
OursMarket
Draw23%26%−4
OursMarket
Villarreal22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 51% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 54% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 49% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 69% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atletico Madrid
WinWinLossLossWin
- Aug 19 · v Málaga (H)2-0
- May 24 · at Villarreal (A)1-5
- May 24 · at Villarreal (A)1-5
- May 17 · v Girona (H)1-0
- May 12 · at Osasuna (A)2-1
Villarreal
LossLossWinWinDraw
- Aug 16 · at Racing de Santander (A)2-2
- May 24 · v Atletico Madrid (H)5-1
- May 24 · v Atlético Madrid (H)5-1
- May 17 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)0-2
- May 13 · v Sevilla (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Atletico Madrid | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.