Serie A (Brazil) · Sat, Oct 17 · 21:30 · Atlético Mineiro vs Coritiba
Likeliest: Atlético Mineiro win · 51%
A 30% draw. The market says 24%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético Mineiro51%61%−9
OursMarket
Draw30%24%+6
OursMarket
Coritiba19%15%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 85% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 39% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 76% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 80% | −7 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Mineiro
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 14 · v Montevideo City Torque (H)3-0
- Oct 11 · v Santos (H)2-1
- Oct 8 · at Athletico (A)2-2
- Oct 3 · v Red Bull Bragantino (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · v Chapecoense (H)1-1
Coritiba
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 12 · v Botafogo (H)1-1
- Oct 9 · at Fluminense (A)0-4
- Sep 19 · at Vasco da Gama (A)0-5
- Sep 12 · v Athletico (H)3-3
- Sep 6 · v Mirassol (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Atlético Mineiro | Coritiba |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.