Copa do Brasil (Brazil) · Wed, Sep 2 · 00:00 · Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro
Likeliest: Atlético Mineiro win · 42%
We make it 51% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético Mineiro42%36%+6
OursMarket
Draw27%33%−6
OursMarket
Cruzeiro31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 41% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 48% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 64% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 67% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 53% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Mineiro
WinDrawDrawDrawWin
- Aug 29 · v Vitória (H)2-1
- Aug 26 · at Cruzeiro (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · at Internacional (A)0-0
- Aug 19 · v Red Bull Bragantino (H)2-2
- Aug 16 · v Grêmio (H)3-0
Cruzeiro
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Aug 30 · at Vasco da Gama (A)1-3
- Aug 26 · v Atlético Mineiro (H)1-1
- Aug 22 · v Flamengo (H)2-1
- Aug 20 · at Flamengo (A)1-2
- Aug 16 · at Corinthians (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Atlético Mineiro | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-6-0 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.