Copa do Brasil (Brazil) · Sat, Aug 1 · 22:30 · Atlético Mineiro vs Juventude
Likeliest: Atlético Mineiro win · 42%
A 28% away win. The market says 12%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético Mineiro42%65%−24
OursMarket
Draw30%22%+8
OursMarket
Juventude28%12%+16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 44% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 44% | 40% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 88% | −16 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 35% | +24 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 78% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 84% | −25 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Mineiro
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Jul 26 · at Palmeiras (A)2-1
- Jul 21 · v Bahia (H)1-1
- May 31 · at Vasco da Gama (A)1-0
- May 27 · v Academia Puerto Cabello (H)1-0
- May 24 · at Corinthians (A)0-1
Juventude
WinWinWinLossWin
- Jul 28 · v Avaí (H)1-0
- Jul 24 · at Botafogo-SP (A)2-4
- Jul 17 · v Cuiabá (H)2-0
- Jul 10 · v Vila Nova (H)1-0
- Jul 10 · v Vila Nova FC (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Atlético Mineiro | Juventude |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 80% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.