Copa Sudamericana (South America) · Wed, Oct 14 · 22:00 · Atlético Mineiro vs Montevideo City Torque
Likeliest: Atlético Mineiro win · 68%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 68% for the home win. The market says 66%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético Mineiro68%66%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Montevideo City Torque10%12%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 40% | 41% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 90% | 88% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | 34% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 84% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Mineiro
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 11 · v Santos (H)2-1
- Oct 8 · at Athletico (A)2-2
- Oct 3 · v Red Bull Bragantino (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · v Chapecoense (H)1-1
- Sep 16 · v Santos (H)4-2
Montevideo City Torque
WinLossDrawLossWin
- Oct 9 · v Danubio (H)1-0
- Oct 5 · at Nacional (A)0-2
- Sep 30 · v Peñarol (H)1-1
- Sep 27 · v Deportivo Maldonado (H)0-2
- Sep 21 · at Central Español (A)4-1
| Last 10 games | Atlético Mineiro | Montevideo City Torque |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.