Copa Sudamericana (South America) · Wed, Aug 19 · 22:00 · Atlético Mineiro vs Red Bull Bragantino
Likeliest: Atlético Mineiro win · 51%
We make it 51% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético Mineiro51%43%+8
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−4
OursMarket
Red Bull Bragantino24%28%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 42% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 44% | 46% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 57% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 60% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Mineiro
DrawWinDrawDrawWin
- Aug 16 · v Grêmio (H)3-0
- Aug 12 · at Red Bull Bragantino (A)0-0
- Aug 8 · at Remo (A)2-2
- Aug 4 · at Juventude (A)1-0
- Aug 1 · v Juventude (H)0-0
Red Bull Bragantino
DrawWinLossDrawDraw
- Aug 15 · at Athletico (A)1-1
- Aug 12 · v Atlético Mineiro (H)0-0
- Aug 9 · v Corinthians (H)0-2
- Jul 30 · v Club Sporting Cristal (H)1-0
- Jul 26 · v Coritiba (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Atlético Mineiro | Red Bull Bragantino |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.