Copa Sudamericana (South America) · Wed, Sep 16 · 22:00 · Atlético Mineiro vs Santos
Likeliest: Atlético Mineiro win · 49%
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético Mineiro49%50%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+1
OursMarket
Santos22%22%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 42% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 46% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Mineiro
WinWinLossLossWin
- Sep 12 · v Fluminense (H)3-1
- Sep 9 · at Santos (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · at São Paulo (A)0-2
- Sep 2 · v Cruzeiro (H)2-1
- Aug 29 · v Vitória (H)2-1
Santos
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Sep 13 · v Cruzeiro (H)2-1
- Sep 9 · v Atlético Mineiro (H)2-0
- Sep 6 · at Internacional (A)3-2
- Sep 3 · v Palmeiras (H)0-0
- Aug 30 · at Corinthians (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Atlético Mineiro | Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.