Primera A (Colombia) · Thu, Oct 8 · 01:20 · Atlético Nacional vs Deportes Tolima
Likeliest: Atlético Nacional win · 60%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 60% for the home win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético Nacional60%59%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Deportes Tolima16%18%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 52% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 82% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 41% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Nacional
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 1 · v Junior Barranquilla (H)3-1
- Sep 25 · v Millonarios (H)1-1
- Sep 21 · at Llaneros FC (A)0-2
- Sep 17 · at Internacional de Bogotá (A)3-2
- Sep 13 · v Rionegro Águilas Doradas (H)2-0
Deportes Tolima
LossLossDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 3 · v Boyacá Chicó FC (H)0-0
- Sep 27 · at Fortaleza CEIF (A)2-2
- Sep 20 · v América de Cali (H)1-1
- Sep 16 · at Once Caldas (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Independiente Santa Fe (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Atlético Nacional | Deportes Tolima |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.