Primera A (Colombia) · Fri, Oct 23 · 01:00 · Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto
Likeliest: Atlético Nacional win · 66%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 66% for the home win. The market says 75%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético Nacional66%75%−9
OursMarket
Draw22%16%+6
OursMarket
Deportivo Pasto12%9%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 91% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 25% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 84% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 89% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Nacional
LossDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 17 · at Boyacá Chicó FC (A)4-1
- Oct 8 · v Deportes Tolima (H)0-0
- Oct 1 · v Junior Barranquilla (H)3-1
- Sep 25 · v Millonarios (H)1-1
- Sep 21 · at Llaneros FC (A)0-2
Deportivo Pasto
WinWinDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 20 · v Alianza Valledupar FC (H)0-1
- Oct 4 · v Fortaleza CEIF (H)0-0
- Sep 25 · at Boyacá Chicó FC (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Once Caldas (H)1-0
- Sep 15 · at América de Cali (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Atlético Nacional | Deportivo Pasto |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 1-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.