Primera A (Colombia) · Sun, Oct 25 · 23:10 · Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín
Likeliest: Atlético Nacional win · 58%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético Nacional58%56%+2
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Independiente Medellín18%19%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 44% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 74% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Nacional
LossDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 17 · at Boyacá Chicó FC (A)4-1
- Oct 8 · v Deportes Tolima (H)0-0
- Oct 1 · v Junior Barranquilla (H)3-1
- Sep 25 · v Millonarios (H)1-1
- Sep 21 · at Llaneros FC (A)0-2
Independiente Medellín
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 18 · v Once Caldas (H)0-2
- Oct 12 · at América de Cali (A)2-1
- Oct 6 · v Independiente Santa Fe (H)0-1
- Sep 30 · v Millonarios (H)2-2
- Sep 27 · at Junior Barranquilla (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Atlético Nacional | Independiente Medellín |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.