Canadian Premier League (Canada) · Wed, Sep 30 · 23:00 · Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC
Likeliest: Cavalry FC win · 57%
Likely score: 0–2
A tight one: we make it 57% for the away win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético Ottawa18%21%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Cavalry FC57%54%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 44% | 46% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 82% | 79% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 24% | 28% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Ottawa
WinDrawLossLossWin
- Sep 26 · at HFX Wanderers FC (A)1-0
- Sep 20 · v FC Supra Du Quebec (H)0-2
- Sep 12 · at Forge FC (A)0-3
- Sep 5 · v Pacific FC (H)0-0
- Aug 28 · v York United FC (H)2-1
Cavalry FC
WinWinWinDrawDraw
- Sep 26 · v FC Supra Du Quebec (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Forge FC (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Pacific FC (A)1-0
- Sep 7 · at HFX Wanderers FC (A)3-1
- Aug 29 · v Vancouver FC (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Atlético Ottawa | Cavalry FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 7-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 4-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.