Canadian Premier League (Canada) · Sun, Sep 20 · 16:00 · Atlético Ottawa vs FC Supra Du Quebec
Likeliest: FC Supra Du Quebec win · 44%
A tight one: we make it 44% for the away win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético Ottawa32%34%−2
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
FC Supra Du Quebec44%42%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 45% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Ottawa
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Sep 12 · at Forge FC (A)0-3
- Sep 5 · v Pacific FC (H)0-0
- Aug 28 · v York United FC (H)2-1
- Aug 22 · at Cavalry FC (A)1-3
- Aug 19 · v Vancouver FC (H)4-0
FC Supra Du Quebec
LossDrawWinLossLoss
- Sep 12 · v HFX Wanderers FC (H)0-2
- Sep 6 · at Vancouver FC (A)2-3
- Aug 28 · v Forge FC (H)1-0
- Aug 23 · at York United FC (A)1-1
- Aug 19 · at Forge FC (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Atlético Ottawa | FC Supra Du Quebec |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-1 | 2-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.