Canadian Premier League (Canada) · Sat, Oct 17 · 17:00 · Atlético Ottawa vs Forge FC
Likeliest: Forge FC win · 49%
A 28% draw. The market says 24%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético Ottawa23%24%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%24%+5
OursMarket
Forge FC49%53%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 59% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 59% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 47% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 76% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 32% | 31% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Ottawa
LossLossWinWinWin
- Oct 11 · at Pacific FC (A)2-0
- Sep 30 · v Cavalry FC (H)3-2
- Sep 26 · at HFX Wanderers FC (A)1-0
- Sep 20 · v FC Supra Du Quebec (H)0-2
- Sep 12 · at Forge FC (A)0-3
Forge FC
DrawDrawDrawWinWin
- Oct 12 · v York United FC (H)5-0
- Oct 7 · v Pacific FC (H)3-0
- Oct 3 · v HFX Wanderers FC (H)3-3
- Sep 26 · at Vancouver FC (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Cavalry FC (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Atlético Ottawa | Forge FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.