Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Tue, Oct 13 · 18:00 · Atletico Rafaela Reserve vs Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Reserve
Likeliest: Atletico Rafaela Reserve win · 40%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atletico Rafaela Reserve40%42%−2
OursMarket
Draw31%28%+2
OursMarket
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Reserve29%30%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 42% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 58% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atletico Rafaela Reserve
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 6 · at Huracán Reserve (A)0-1
- Sep 29 · v Ferro Carril Oeste Reserve (H)3-2
- Sep 23 · at Sarmiento Reserve (A)1-3
- Sep 17 · at Boca Juniors Reserve (A)0-0
- Sep 8 · v CA Independiente Reserve (H)2-1
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Reserve
WinWinWinDrawDraw
- Oct 7 · v Platense Reserve (H)2-2
- Sep 30 · at Quilmes Reserve (A)1-1
- Sep 24 · at Instituto AC Cordoba Reserves (A)2-0
- Sep 17 · v Estudiantes de La Plata Reserve (H)1-0
- Sep 9 · at Central Cordoba Reserve (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Atletico Rafaela Reserve | Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-0 | 2-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.