Liga MX (Mexico) · Wed, Oct 21 · 01:00 · Atlético San Luis vs Querétaro FC
Likeliest: Atlético San Luis win · 39%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético San Luis39%41%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Querétaro FC32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético San Luis
LossWinWinLossDraw
- Oct 18 · at CD Toluca (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · v Santos Laguna (H)1-2
- Sep 27 · at Pumas UNAM (A)3-2
- Sep 19 · v Club Necaxa (H)3-1
- Sep 15 · at Club León (A)0-2
Querétaro FC
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Santos Laguna (A)0-5
- Oct 10 · v Atlante FC (H)2-0
- Sep 26 · at CD Guadalajara (A)2-0
- Sep 21 · v Club León (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Club Tijuana (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Atlético San Luis | Querétaro FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 4-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.