Liga MX (Mexico) · Sun, Oct 11 · 23:00 · Atlético San Luis vs Santos Laguna
Likeliest: Atlético San Luis win · 46%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético San Luis46%49%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
Santos Laguna27%26%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 51% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 65% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético San Luis
WinLossLossWinWin
- Sep 27 · at Pumas UNAM (A)3-2
- Sep 19 · v Club Necaxa (H)3-1
- Sep 15 · at Club León (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v CD Guadalajara (H)0-3
- Aug 31 · at CF Monterrey (A)3-1
Santos Laguna
DrawLossWinWinWin
- Sep 27 · v CF Pachuca (H)1-0
- Sep 21 · at CD Toluca (A)3-2
- Sep 14 · v FC Juárez (H)2-1
- Sep 6 · at Cruz Azul (A)0-1
- Aug 30 · v Tigres UANL (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Atlético San Luis | Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 2-0-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.