Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Thu, Oct 8 · 18:00 · Atlético Tucumán Reserve vs Talleres de Córdoba Reserve
Likeliest: Talleres de Córdoba Reserve win · 39%
Likely score: 0–1
We make it 63% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 55%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético Tucumán Reserve31%34%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Talleres de Córdoba Reserve39%39%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 45% | −8 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 44% | 51% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 47% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Tucumán Reserve
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Sep 29 · at Banfield Reserve (A)1-1
- Sep 22 · at Central Cordoba Reserve (A)1-0
- Sep 16 · v Rosario Central Reserve (H)0-1
- Sep 10 · at Tigre Reserve (A)0-2
- Sep 2 · v San Lorenzo Reserve (H)2-1
Talleres de Córdoba Reserve
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 1 · v Godoy Cruz Reserve (H)3-1
- Sep 23 · at Belgrano Reserve (A)1-1
- Sep 16 · at Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza Reserve (A)0-1
- Sep 9 · v Barracas Central Reserve (H)2-1
- Sep 2 · v Instituto AC Cordoba Reserves (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Atlético Tucumán Reserve | Talleres de Córdoba Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-2 | 2-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.