Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) · Tue, Nov 3 · 00:15 · Atlético Tucumán vs Argentinos Juniors
Likeliest: Argentinos Juniors win · 38%
Likely scores: 0–0 15% · 1–1 15% · 0–1 12%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético Tucumán27%31%−3
OursMarket
Draw35%31%+3
OursMarket
Argentinos Juniors38%38%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 39% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 46% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 69% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 65% | 69% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 44% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Tucumán
LossDrawLossWinDraw
- Oct 29 · v Platense (H)1-1
- Oct 24 · at Tigre (A)1-0
- Oct 17 · v Rosario Central (H)2-3
- Oct 9 · at Gimnasia y Esgrima (A)1-1
- Oct 3 · v Barracas Central (H)2-3
Argentinos Juniors
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 27 · v Independiente Rivadavia (H)1-0
- Oct 17 · at Banfield (A)1-0
- Oct 11 · at Platense (A)1-1
- Oct 3 · v Tigre (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · at Rosario Central (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Atlético Tucumán | Argentinos Juniors |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-6-4 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.