Copa Argentina (Argentina) · Wed, Aug 12 · 22:15 · Atlético Tucumán vs CA Independiente
Likeliest: CA Independiente win · 45%
A 45% away win. The market says 40%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético Tucumán26%29%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%31%−2
OursMarket
CA Independiente45%40%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 39% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 45% | 42% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 60% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 69% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 42% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Tucumán
WinDrawWinDrawLoss
- Aug 8 · v Sarmiento (H)1-2
- Aug 4 · at Huracán (A)0-0
- Jul 31 · at Central Córdoba (A)2-0
- Jul 26 · v Independiente Rivadavia (H)0-0
- May 3 · at River Plate (A)1-0
CA Independiente
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Aug 9 · v Platense (H)0-1
- Aug 3 · at Vélez Sarsfield (A)0-1
- Jul 31 · v Newell's Old Boys (H)1-0
- Jul 26 · at Estudiantes de La Plata (A)2-0
- May 10 · at Rosario Central (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Atlético Tucumán | CA Independiente |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-6-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.