Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 17 · 23:00 · Atlético Tucumán vs Rosario Central
Likeliest: Rosario Central win · 40%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 49% for both teams to score. The market says 44%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético Tucumán25%29%−4
OursMarket
Draw35%31%+3
OursMarket
Rosario Central40%40%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 37% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 44% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 66% | 69% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 42% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Tucumán
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 9 · at Gimnasia y Esgrima (A)1-1
- Oct 3 · v Barracas Central (H)2-3
- Sep 21 · at Aldosivi (A)0-1
- Sep 16 · at Independiente Rivadavia (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v River Plate (H)1-2
Rosario Central
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 11 · v Independiente Rivadavia (H)5-0
- Oct 6 · at Banfield (A)1-1
- Sep 20 · v Argentinos Juniors (H)1-0
- Sep 13 · at Tigre (A)1-0
- Sep 6 · v Newell's Old Boys (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Atlético Tucumán | Rosario Central |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-6-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.