LigaPro Serie A (Ecuador) · Sun, Oct 25 · 21:30 · Aucas vs Barcelona SC
Likeliest: Aucas win · 49%
We make it 51% for both teams to score. The market says 47%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Aucas49%50%−1
OursMarket
Draw32%28%+4
OursMarket
Barcelona SC19%22%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 42% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 47% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 78% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 72% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aucas
DrawDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 17 · v LDU (H)1-1
- Oct 10 · at Independiente del Valle (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v Macará (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Manta FC (A)0-0
- Sep 7 · v Barcelona SC (H)1-1
Barcelona SC
WinDrawDrawLossDraw
- Oct 18 · v Universidad Católica del Ecuador (H)1-1
- Oct 11 · at LDU (A)1-2
- Sep 13 · v Delfín (H)1-1
- Sep 7 · at Aucas (A)1-1
- Sep 3 · v Independiente del Valle (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Aucas | Barcelona SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.