LigaPro Serie A (Ecuador) · Sat, Sep 19 · 00:30 · Aucas vs Macará
Likeliest: Aucas win · 47%
We make it 53% for both teams to score. The market says 48%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Aucas47%48%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Macará23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 43% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 48% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 66% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aucas
WinWinDrawDrawDraw
- Sep 12 · at Manta FC (A)0-0
- Sep 7 · v Barcelona SC (H)1-1
- Sep 3 · at Universidad Católica del Ecuador (A)1-1
- Aug 30 · v Libertad (H)1-0
- Aug 23 · at Delfín (A)1-0
Macará
LossWinWinLossWin
- Sep 13 · v Emelec (H)1-0
- Sep 5 · at Independiente del Valle (A)1-3
- Sep 2 · v Manta FC (H)4-3
- Aug 30 · at Orense SC (A)2-1
- Aug 25 · at Libertad (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Aucas | Macará |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.