A-League Men (Australia) · Sat, Oct 17 · 04:00 · Auckland FC vs Melbourne City
Likeliest: Auckland FC win · 36%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 36% for the home win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Auckland FC36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Melbourne City33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 47% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Auckland FC
Loss
- Aug 26 · at Al-Ahli (A)0-1
Melbourne City
WinWinWinLossDraw
- May 2 · at Auckland (A)1-1
- Apr 26 · v Adelaide United (H)1-2
- Apr 18 · at Brisbane Roar (A)3-2
- Apr 12 · v Wellington Phoenix (H)2-0
- Apr 7 · v Central Coast Mariners (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Auckland FC | Melbourne City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 50% |
| Both teams scored | — | 60% |
| Clean sheets | — | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.