Primera División (Chile) · Sun, Sep 13 · 23:00 · Audax Italiano vs O'Higgins
Likeliest: Audax Italiano win · 36%
A tight one: we make it 36% for the home win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Audax Italiano36%37%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+2
OursMarket
O'Higgins35%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Audax Italiano
DrawDrawDrawLossWin
- Sep 5 · at Deportes Concepción (A)1-0
- Aug 30 · at Colo Colo (A)1-5
- Aug 22 · v Unión La Calera (H)0-0
- Aug 16 · at Everton de Viña del Mar (A)1-1
- Aug 11 · v Ñublense (H)2-2
O'Higgins
LossDrawLossLossWin
- Sep 6 · v Unión La Calera (H)2-1
- Sep 1 · at Universidad Católica (A)2-3
- Aug 23 · v Palestino (H)0-1
- Aug 16 · at Colo Colo (A)2-2
- Aug 9 · v Deportes Limache (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Audax Italiano | O'Higgins |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-3 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.