Leagues Cup (North & Central America) · Mon, Aug 10 · 01:00 · Austin FC vs Club Puebla
Likeliest: Austin FC win · 52%
We make it 58% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Austin FC52%52%0
OursMarket
Draw26%24%+1
OursMarket
Club Puebla22%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 58% | −15 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 59% | −10 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 69% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Austin FC
LossWinLossLossWin
- Aug 7 · v Club Tijuana (H)2-0
- Aug 2 · at Colorado Rapids (A)0-1
- Jul 26 · at Houston Dynamo (A)0-3
- Jul 23 · v Seattle Sounders FC (H)3-1
- May 23 · at St. Louis City (A)0-3
Club Puebla
WinLossDrawLoss
- Aug 7 · at Portland Timbers (A)2-5
- Aug 1 · v CD Guadalajara (H)1-1
- Jul 22 · at Cruz Azul (A)1-2
- Jul 18 · at FC Juárez (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Austin FC | Club Puebla |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | — |
| Both teams scored | 30% | — |
| Clean sheets | 30% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.