Major League Soccer (USA) · Sun, Oct 18 · 00:30 · Austin FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Likeliest: Vancouver Whitecaps win · 57%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 57% for the away win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Austin FC18%20%−2
OursMarket
Draw25%22%+3
OursMarket
Vancouver Whitecaps57%58%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 64% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 43% | 42% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 78% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 24% | 25% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Austin FC
WinDrawDrawLossLoss
- Oct 15 · at Los Angeles FC (A)1-3
- Oct 11 · v Nashville SC (H)1-4
- Sep 27 · v San Diego FC (H)3-3
- Sep 20 · at FC Dallas (A)0-0
- Sep 13 · at Vancouver Whitecaps (A)2-1
Vancouver Whitecaps
WinDrawLossDrawDraw
- Oct 15 · at St.Louis City (A)0-0
- Oct 11 · at Los Angeles FC (A)1-1
- Oct 7 · at Chicago Fire (A)1-3
- Sep 27 · v DC United (H)3-3
- Sep 20 · at Real Salt Lake (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Austin FC | Vancouver Whitecaps |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.