2. Liga (Austria) · Sat, Oct 10 · 13:30 · Austria Salzburg vs Floridsdorfer AC
Likeliest: Austria Salzburg win · 37%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Austria Salzburg37%38%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Floridsdorfer AC35%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 51% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 54% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Austria Salzburg
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Sep 19 · at ASK Voitsberg (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v Sturm Graz II (H)3-3
- Aug 28 · at SKN St. Pölten (A)0-1
- Aug 21 · v Kapfenberger SV (H)3-2
- Aug 15 · at Young Violets Austria Wien (A)1-3
Floridsdorfer AC
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Sep 18 · v FC Liefering (H)4-0
- Sep 12 · at Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz (A)0-4
- Aug 29 · v FC Wacker Innsbruck (H)2-0
- Aug 22 · at Rapid Wien II (A)2-0
- Aug 15 · v SKU Amstetten (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Austria Salzburg | Floridsdorfer AC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-3 | 4-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 57% |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 29% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 57% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.